Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 29th March 2019
All near-term (up to and including summer 19) power and gas contracts fell this week as gas supplies are forecast to remain comfortable as we move into summer, whilst several LNG tankers are scheduled to arrive in the first week of April. All near-term baseload power contracts, up to and including summer 19, fell week-on-week. Day-ahead power was down 4.5% to end the week at £42.0/MWh, a fresh 18-month low. Nearly all seasonal power contracts rose, gaining 1.4% on average. Summer 19 power was the exception, down 1.8% to £42.8/MWh, a near one-year low. Day-ahead gas dropped 4.3% to end the week at a 35.3p/th, a fresh 20-month low despite forecasts of cooler temperatures early next week. Most seasonal gas contracts rose, up 0.9% on average. Summer 19 gas was the exception, dropping 3.7% to 35.5p/th, the lowest since June 2016. Brent crude oil prices averaged $67.5/bl this week, relatively unchanged from the previous week. Rising US production continues to be offset by concerns of a tightening market amid OPEC+ production cuts, as pressure from the US-China trade war and worries of slowing economic growth are also not enough to cap gains. EU ETS carbon prices lifted slightly, up 1.5% to average €21.6/t. Within-day carbon prices rose above €22.3/t at the end of the week, a two-week high. API 2 coal prices went up for the first time in four weeks, rising 0.6% to average $73.9/t. Within-day prices rose to a two-week high of $75.3/t in the middle of the week but ended at a seven-week low of $72.0/t.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 29th March 2019
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 22nd March 2019
Wholesale power and gas contracts fell across the board this week, with many contracts hitting new lows. Day-ahead gas fell to a 20-month low as comfortable supplies and mild temperatures continued. This trend drove day-ahead power prices to a 17-month low, despite lower wind generation. All baseload power contracts fell week-on-week. Day-ahead power was down 7.4% to end the week at £44.0/MWh. The contract fell to £43.1/MWh on 21 March, a fresh 17-month low as the contract followed its gas counterpart lower. All seasonal power contracts continued lower, dropping 2.7% on average. Summer and winter 19 power contracts fell 4.1% and 2.9% to £43.6/MWh and £53.5/MWh respectively, with summer 19 power at a fresh 11-month low. All gas contracts fell week-on-week, as above seasonal normal temperatures continued to drive down gas demand, leaving the gas system oversupplied for most of the week. Day-ahead gas dropped 5.4% to end the week at a 36.9p/th. The contract dropped to a fresh 20-month low of 36.8p/th on 20 March, as two LNG tankers were scheduled to arrive the following day. Seasonal gas contracts decreased 2.8% on average. Summer 19 gas dropped 5.5% to end the week at 36.9p/th, the lowest since June 2016. Brent crude oil prices rose slightly, up 0.9% to average $67.6/bl. Within-day oil prices rose to a fresh four-month high of $68.7/bl on 22 March. API 2 coal prices fell for a third consecutive week, down 3.0% to average $73.5/t. Within-day prices ended the week at $73.0/t, a fresh one-year low.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 22nd March 2019
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 15th March 2019
All wholesale power and gas contracts fell week-on-week, with day-ahead gas dropping to a 20-month lows as comfortable gas supplies and mild temperatures continue. Falling gas prices and strong wind generation drove day-ahead power prices to 18-month lows. All baseload power contracts fell week-on-week. Day-ahead power was down 1.0% to end the week at £47.5/MWh. The contract fell to £43.4/MWh on 14 March, a fresh 18-month low, amid forecasts of higher wind generation the following day. All seasonal power contracts continued to fall further, dropping 4.2% on average. Summer 19 power fell to an 11-month low of £45.5/MWh, while winter 19 power hit a nine-month low of £55.0/MWh. All gas contracts fell week-on-week, as above seasonal normal temperatures continued to drive down gas demand, leaving the gas system oversupplied for most of the week. Day-ahead gas dropped 8.8% to end the week at a 20-month low of 39.0p/th, 41.8% below the same time last year. Seasonal gas contracts decreased 6.6% on average, with summer 19 gas experiencing the biggest change falling 9.0% to end the week at 39.0p/th, a 13-month low. Brent crude oil prices rose this week, up 1.8% to average $66.9/bl. Within-day oil prices rose to a fresh four-month high above $68.0/bl on 14 March. EU ETS carbon prices slipped 1.1% to average €22.5/t. API 2 coal prices fell for a second consecutive week, down 3.7% to average $75.8/t, as milder temperatures in the northern hemisphere, combined with higher wind generation in Europe, dampened coal demand.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 15th March 2019
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 8th March 2019
Nearly all wholesale power and gas contracts fell week-on-week. Whilst day-ahead power was unchanged at £48.0/MWh, day-ahead gas dropped to fresh 17-month lows as comfortable gas supplies and mild temperatures continued in early March. Gas prices were further pressured by a slip in Brent crude oil prices. Nearly all near-term baseload power contracts fell week-on-week, although day-ahead power was an exception, remaining at £48.0/MWh. Most seasonal power contracts reversed the previous week’s gains, dropping 0.2% on average. Whilst the summer and winter 19 contracts fell to £48.2/MWh and £58.0/MWh, respectively, summer and winter 20 power both rose from the previous week, up 0.2% and 0.5% to £48.6/MWh and £55.4/MWh, respectively. Near-term gas prices have continued to be pressured by comfortable gas supplies amid the arrival of several LNG tankers, above seasonal normal temperatures, and strong supplies from the UKCS and Norway. Day-ahead gas dropped 3.3% to end the week at 42.8p/th, with the contract dropping to a fresh 17-month low of 42.6p/th on 7 March. Seasonal gas contracts decreased 2.3% on average. Brent crude oil fell for a second consecutive week, slipping 0.4% to average $65.8/bl. Oil prices continue to fluctuate in response to OPEC+ production cuts creating a tighter market, and rising US crude production which is easing the impact of OPEC’s cuts. API 2 coal prices fell for the first time in three weeks, down 1.0% to average $78.7/t. EU ETS carbon prices rose 12.5% to average €22.8/t.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 8th March 2019
Written By Graham Paul
