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Energy Wholesale Market Review


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 25th October 2019

The majority of power and gas contracts decreased this week. Day-ahead contracts were an exception with day-ahead gas jumping 7.5% to 30.0p/th, driven by rising demand amid a drop in temperatures and weaker wind generation. Day-ahead power gained 4.9% to finish the week at £44.3/MWh following gas prices higher. November 2019 gas lost 2.6% to 40.6p/th and December 19 gas dropped 5.6% to 44.1p/th. Seasonal gas contracts fell 1.7% on average with summer 20 gas dropping 3.5% to 40.8p/th. November 19 power dropped 2.8% to £47.9/MWh while December 19 power fell 3.8% to £49.7/MWh. Seasonal power prices slipped 1.5% on average. Summer 20 power fell 2.5% to £46.1/MWh, winter 20 contract lost 1.4% to £53.4/MWh Brent crude oil rose 1.9% to average $60.0/bl, as US stocks saw an unexpected decline early last week. US-China trade talks and the global declining economy are acting as opposite drivers. OPEC cuts resulting in lower stockpiles could drive prices up in the coming months. EU ETS carbon increasing 1.3% to average €25.3/t. Prices still supported by the agreement of a Brexit deal between the EU and the UK. API 2 coal prices dropped 2.3% to average $67.0/t.

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 25th October 2019


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 18th October 2019

The majority of power and gas contracts decreased this week. Day-ahead contracts were an exception with day-ahead gas jumping 21.7% to 28.0p/th, driven by rising demand amid colder temperatures and weaker wind generation. Day-ahead power lifted 2.9% to £42.2/MWh, with low levels of wind generation expected on Monday. November 2019 gas lost 1.6% to 41.7p/th and December 19 gas dropped 4.3% to 46.8p/th. Seasonal gas contracts fell 4.0% on average with summer 20 gas dropping 4.6% to 42.3p/th. Month-ahead power lifted 0.2% to £49.2/MWh and December 19 power lost 1.3% to £51.7/MWh. Seasonal power prices slipped 1.3% on average. Summer 20 power edged 0.8% lower to £47.3/MWh and the winter 20 contract decreased 1.1% to £54.2/MWh. Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to average $59.1/bl. Prices were pushed higher by news of shutdowns at the UK’s Buzzard oilfield and the Forties pipeline although gains were limited by concerns of slower economic growth in China and news that US crude inventories rose more than expected. EU ETS carbon jumped 8.6% to average €25.0/t, following the agreement of a Brexit deal between the EU and the UK. API 2 coal gained 1.4% to average $68.6/t.

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 18th October 2019


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 11th October 2019

Most ahead gas fell 28.1% to 23.0p/th, with warmer than expected temperatures resulting in weaker gas demand. In addition, the arrival of three LNG tankers kept the system comfortably supplied. This also weighed on the month-ahead contract, which slipped 1.4% to 42.4p/th. Further along the curve, summer 20 gas rose 2.8% to 44.3p/th and winter 20 gas climbed 2.7% to 53.7p/th. Day-ahead power lost 4.0% to £41.0/MWh, amid strong levels of wind generation throughout the week. November 19 power dropped 0.9% to £49.1/MWh. Seasonal power contracts followed their gas counterparts with summer 20 power lifting 2.0% to £47.7/MWh and winter 20 power gaining 1.8% to £54.8/MWh. Brent crude oil slipped 0.7% to average $58.7/bl, pressured by ongoing concerns of slowing global demand growth and a larger than expected rise in US crude stocks. API 2 coal gained 2.9% to average $67.6/t, driven by lower domestic coal production and low coal stocks in India and a decrease in gas-fired generation in Germany. EU ETS carbon fell 5.2% to average €23.0/t, amid lower thermal generation as a result of strong wind output and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit and US-China trade talks.

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 11th October 2019


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 4th October 2019

The majority of wholesale power and gas contracts fell, following a decline in Brent crude oil and EU ETS carbon prices. Day-ahead power and gas contracts were the exception, rising 6.8% and 19.6% to £42.7/MWh and 32.0p/th respectively. Forecasts of cooler temperatures offset predictions of higher wind generation next week. November and December 19 power dropped 4.6% and 3.6% to £49.5/MWh and £52.3/MWh, respectively. All seasonal power contracts also declined, lowering 4.1% on average, following their gas counterparts lower. A weekly decline in EU ETS carbon pressured power prices, with concerns of a no-deal Brexit causing carbon to fall to a fresh six-month low of €23.3/t on 4 October. Both November and December 19 gas contracts moved lower, down 4.7% and 3.0% to 43.0p/th and 48.6p/th respectively. Seasonal gas contracts went down 3.9% on average, following a decline in Brent crude oil, which fell 6.3% to $59.1/bl. Within-day day oil prices approached a two-month low, dropping to $57.7/bl on 3 October, as Saudi Arabian oil production returned to full output. API 2 coal was also lower, falling 2.8% to $65.7/t due to weaker demand and high coal stocks.

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 4th October 2019

Written By Graham Paul

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