Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 29th May 2020
Most power and gas contracts rose this week, driven higher by a recovery in their respective day-ahead contracts. Day-ahead gas rose 27.7% to 8.75p/th as gas-for-power demand recovered from the low levels seen late last week. Day-ahead power rose 11.6% to £24.00/MWh, following a significant drop in wind generation compared to the end of last week. June 20 gas was up 14.2% at 9.74p/th, and July 20 gas increased 30.4% to 11.50p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts rose this week, up by 0.6% on average, while winter 20 and summer 21 gas increased 2.3% and 0.1% to 30.78p/th and 28.80p/th, respectively. Most seasonal power contracts lifted this week, up on average by 0.2%, as winter 20 and summer 21 expanded 2.8% and 1.2% respectively, rising to £42.16/MWh and £37.50/MWh. Brent crude oil surrendered recent momentum towards the end of this week, following a few weeks of consecutive gains, falling 0.1% from last week. Tensions between the US and China flared up again as the two economic powerhouses clashed over policy in Hong Kong and continued to dispute over the Chinese purchase of US energy. EU ETS carbon prices gained 4.2% from the previous week to average €21.42/t, aided by a lower number of EUA auctions this week.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 29th May 2020
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 22nd May 2020
Gas and power contracts saw mixed movements this week, with the price of nearer-term contracts falling as a result of continued low demand, whilst there were bullish signs for the majority of seasonal power contracts. Day-ahead gas fell 46.7% to a 14-year low of 6.85p/th as extremely low gas-for-power demand weighed on prices. Day-ahead power fell 0.9% to £21.50/MWh despite trading at £12/MWh on 21 May due to high wind generation forecasts. June 20 gas was down 32.5% at 8.53p/th, and July 20 gas decreased 32.0% to 8.82p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 1.1% on average, while both winter 20 and summer 21 gas dropped 7.8% and 3.0% respectively, subsiding to 30.10p/th and 28.77p/th. Contrastingly, the majority of seasonal power contracts rose this week, up on average by 1.2%, as winter 20 power decreased 1.5% to £41.03/MWh, while summer 21 expanded 0.6% to £37.07/MWh. Brent crude oil continued last week’s momentum to rise 15.5% last week, averaging $35.02/bl, despite falling slightly towards the end of the week. The gains made by oil prices this week have largely been attributed to the easing of lockdown restrictions across the globe resulting in a rise in demand. EU ETS carbon prices rose 8.9% this week as price gains from limited auction supply were extended by rising oil prices.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 22nd May 2020
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 15th May 2020
Mixed movements were observed in GB wholesale gas and power markets this week; near-term contracts continued to decline on low consumption forecasts amid the coronavirus, while several further reaching contracts followed global commodities higher, with some analysts predicting a quicker bounce-back in demand than was previously expected. Day-ahead gas fell 14.3% to 12.85p/th as a result of milder weather forecast for next week. Day-ahead power fell 15.7% to £21.70/MWh, weighed on by its gas counterpart and mild weather. June 20 gas was down 12.2% at 12.64p/th and July 20 gas decreased 15.2% to 12.98p/th. In contrast, all seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 1.6% on average. Winter 20 and summer 21 gas increased 0.3% and 1.9% respectively, lifting to 32.63p/th and 29.65p/th. Most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 1.5%. Winter 20 and summer 21 expanded 1.2% and 1.8% respectively, rising to £41.65/MWh and £36.86/MWh. Brent crude oil prices rose 2.5% this week to average $30.26/bl with relatively little movements seen, though indicators towards the end of the week saw a rise in prices on 15 May. EU ETS carbon prices fell a further 2.1% to average €18.79/t, despite prices rising to €19.19/t on 15 May on colder weather and lower renewables output in Europe.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 15th May 2020
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 8th May 2020
GB power and gas prices saw mixed movements last week, with several gains in contracts which had previously seen sustained losses amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Day-ahead gas (for delivery last Friday) rose 10.3% to 15.00p/th despite much warmer weather towards the end of last week. The day-ahead power contract followed gas movements and rose 2.0% to £25.75/MWh. June 20 gas was up 4.7% at 14.40p/th, and July 20 gas increased 0.3% to 15.30p/th. The majority of seasonal gas contracts also boosted last week, up by 0.9% on average, supported by an underlying rise in LNG and oil prices. Winter 20 and summer 21 gas contracts rose 2.4% and 1.8% respectively, lifting to 32.52p/th and 29.11p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.9% as winter 20 and summer 21 expanded 1.4% and 1.0% respectively, rising to £41.15/MWh and £36.20/MWh. Brent crude oil rose by 32.1% to $29.53/bl as a rise in tensions between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping helped to support prices, with the first phase of the trade deal between China and the US now all but nullified by the spreading of the coronavirus. EU ETS carbon prices fell 4.3% to average €19.19/t as demand for EUAs was slightly muted on bank holidays across Europe last week. API 2 coal prices remained just below $53/t as the commodity continues to show little movement when compared to oil, carbon and LNG prices.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 8th May 2020.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 1st May 2020
Most power and gas contracts fell this week as the UK remained under lockdown, muting demand across the country. Day-ahead gas was an exception and rose 20.9% to 13.60p/th following slightly lower temperatures towards the end of the week. Day-ahead power opposed gas and fell 1.4% to £25.25/MWh as a result of higher wind generation forecasts. June 20 gas was up 0.1% at 13.75p/th, while July 20 gas decreased 0.3% to 15.25p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 1.3% on average. Winter 20 and summer 21 gas dropped 0.9% and 0.7% respectively, subsiding to 31.75p/th and 28.60p/th. All seasonal power contracts followed gas prices down, slipping on average by 1.7%. Winter 20 power decreased 1.0% to £40.60/MWh, while summer 21 fell 1.5% to £35.85/MWh. Brent crude oil prices rose 2.1% to average $22.35/bl, as the ease of lockdown restrictions in several countries around the world and the build-up to oil production cuts in May helped to support prices. Starting the week at around $21/bl, Brent crude prices fell back under $20/bl the following day on reports that global storage was reaching near maximum capacity. EU ETS carbon prices did not follow oil prices and ultimately fell 2.6% to average €20.05/t. Carbon prices dropped with lower demand in EUA auctions as a result of a national holiday across most of Europe on 1 May.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 1st May 2020
Written By Graham Paul
