Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 30th October 2020
All power and gas contracts fell this week, largely weighed upon by lockdown announcements made across GB and Continental Europe which have acted to suppress demand. Day-ahead gas fell 11.6% to 38.00p/th, following a period of milder temperatures correlated with strong renewable generation throughout the week. Similarly, day-ahead power declined, falling 18.3% to £35.75/MWh, with high wind output weighing on prices coupled with lower demand. November 20 gas was down 5.3% at 42.05p/th, and December 20 gas decreased 8.9% to 42.66p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 5.7% on average – following the wider movements in commodity markets. Summer 21 and winter 21 gas dropped 8.4% and 5.3% respectively, subsiding to 33.77p/th and 42.02p/th respectively. All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 4.4%, as summer 21 power decreased 6.1% to £42.40/MWh, while winter 21 fell 4.7% to £48.65/MWh. Brent crude oil fell notably this week, seeing a decrease of 6.6% to average $39.57/bl. The Brent crude price suffered this week as a result of recent lockdown announcements as news of a global escalation in covid-19 case numbers emerged, adding to fears within the market of a likely drop-off in demand. EU ETS carbon dropped by a further 3.5% to average €23.60/t for the week.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 23rd October 2020
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 23rd October 2020
All contracts increased this week, with the exception of day-ahead power. Day-ahead power decreased 4.5% to £43.75/MWh, owing to increased wind outturn as the week progressed coupled with forecasts of strong wind generation across the weekend. The month-ahead contract (November 20) gained 2.7% to £51.25/MWh. Similarly, December 20 power increased 2.2% to average £52.25/MWh. Countering trends seen in the day-ahead contract, all other seasonal power contracts experienced growth in comparison with the week prior. The majority of gas contracts moved higher this week attributed predominately to a general decline in temperatures as we progress further towards the winter months. As such, day-ahead gas lifted 6.2% to 43.00p/th. November 20 gas rose 8.8% to 44.38p/th, with December 20 gas also rising 9.0% to 46.85p/th. Summer 21 gas lifted 5.6% to 36.87p/th with the winter 21 contract lifting 2.9% to 44.35p/th. Brent crude oil marginally rose this week, seeing an increase of 0.3% to average $42.39/bl. The Brent crude oil price maintained a relatively stable position above $42.00/bl, with conflicting factors such as ongoing supply disruption in Norway and increasing levels of oil in US inventories, preventing major price shifts in either direction. EU ETS carbon dropped by a further 3.2% to average €24.47/t for the week.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 23rd October 2020
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th October 2020
Power contracts experienced mixed price movements throughout this week. Day-ahead power decreased 5.7% to £45.80/MWh, owing to strong renewables output forecast for the start of next week. This was despite high prices observed mid-week amid news of tight supply margins and numerous generator outages. The month-ahead contract (November 20) gained 0.1% to £49.90/MWh. In contrast, summer 21 power moved 1.3% lower to £43.45/MWh, with winter 21 also decreasing 1.6% to £49.90/MWh. Similar to power contract movements, gas contracts varied widely throughout the week, with forward contracts experiencing support from the forecast cold snap across GB and Continental Europe. Day-ahead gas lifted 5.2% to 40.50p/th. November 20 gas rose 5.8% to 40.80p/th, with December 20 gas also rising 4.9% to 43.00p/th. Summer 21 gas lifted 0.4% to 34.90p/th but the winter 21 contract slipped 1.1% to 43.10p/th. Brent crude oil marginally rose this week, seeing an increase of 1.0% to average $42.28/bl. Despite the price growth this week, a general sentiment of uncertainty continues to circulate throughout the market as the threat of COVID-19 globally begins to intensify again. EU ETS prices fell this week, reversing the marginal increase in prices the previous week. Prices dropped by 5.4% to average €25.27/t for the week, following similar drivers to the oil market, as rising COVID-19 cases could dampen demand for EUAs this winter.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th October 2020
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th October 2020
The majority of power and gas contracts experienced growth this week. Day-ahead power increased 10.4% to £48.55/MWh, owing to a rise in demand as a result of falling temperatures. The month-ahead contract slipped 0.2% to £49.85/MWh as one of only two power contracts to decline this week. December 20 power rose 0.5% to £50.75/MWh. Summer 21 power moved 3.1% higher to £44.00/MWh, with winter 21 also increasing 2.3% to £50.70/MWh. All gas contracts increased this week, indicative of increased demand experienced across GB and Continental Europe. Day-ahead gas lifted 20.3% to 38.50p/th, with colder temperatures outweighing the impact of an oversupplied system throughout the majority of the week. November 20 gas rose 7.8% to 38.55p/th, with December 20 gas rising 6.6% to 41.00p/th. Summer 21 gas rose 6.4% to 34.75p/th and the winter 21 contract climbed 3.9% to 43.60p/th. Brent crude oil rose 1.6% to average $41.86/bl, gaining momentum from the news US president, Donald Trump left hospital and returned to the Whitehouse, having tested positive for the Coronavirus last week. Similarly, potential supply shortages amid strike action from oil field service workers in Norway has lent support to prices this week. EU ETS gained 0.3% to average €26.63/t, reversing trends seen last week. However, impacts of Brexit on the structure of EU ETS trading continue to loom over the market at present.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th October 2020
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 2nd October 2020
Nearly all power and gas contracts declined this week, as seasonal contracts were weighed upon by lower Brent crude oil and EU ETS carbon prices. Day-ahead power lost 6.4% to £44.00/MWh, amid high levels of wind generation for much of the week. The new month-ahead contract (November 20) dropped 4.2% to £49.95/MWh and December 20 power slipped 0.9% to £50.50/MWh. Summer 21 power moved 1.1% lower to £42.69/MWh, while winter 21 power lost 1.8% to £49.58/MWh. Day-ahead gas lifted 2.2% to 32.00p/th, with colder temperatures outweighing the impact of an oversupplied system throughout the week. November 20 gas edged 0.8% lower to 35.76p/th and December 20 gas dropped 3.8% to 38.46p/th. Summer 21 gas fell 1.6% to 32.65p/th and the winter 21 contract declined 2.1% to 41.95p/th. Brent crude oil fell 1.7% to average $41.19/bl, with the continuation of demand concerns amid a second wave of COVID-19. On Friday, prices dropped below $40.0/bl, reacting to news that President Trump had tested positive for COVID-19 and a significant increase in Libyan oil production. EU ETS lost 1.0% to average €26.63/t, pressured by increased expectations of a ‘hard Brexit’ and drops in other global markets.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 2nd October 2020
Written By Graham Paul
