Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 26th February 2021
It was a relatively bearish week again for gas and power contracts this week, with the exception of the day-ahead power contract and near-term peak power. Day-ahead power rose 14.7% to £65.95/MWh, with forecasts of notably reduced wind generation expected next week. Alternatively, Day-ahead gas fell 6.5% to 40.90p/th, following the system being oversupplied for the majority of the week. March 21 gas was down 9.2% at 39.72p/th, and April 21 gas decreased 11.2% to 38.05p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 2.6% on average, with summer 21 and winter 21 gas falling 6.1% and 3.6% respectively, subsiding to 38.64p/th and 48.65p/th. Most seasonal power contracts followed the same downward, falling on average by 1.2%, with summer 21 power declining 3.6% to £50.00/MWh, while winter 21 lost 1.5% to £58.88/MWh. Brent crude oil rose again this week, up 3.2% to average $65.67/bl. Brent crude broke 12-months highs again this week, climbing to a peak of $67.20/bl on 25 February. The Brent crude market continues to prosper in the wake of the ongoing global vaccination roll-out. Similarly, easing lockdown restrictions across some major economies and positive economic forecasts for recovery all acted to support prices this week. EU ETS carbon prices fell this week, declining 2.6% to average €38.04/t. The EUA December 21 contract closed below the anticipated bullish forecasts, sending a relatively bearish signal across the market.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 26th February 2021
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 19th February 2021
It has been a largely bearish week for gas and power contracts this week, with some exceptions on longer term seasonal power contracts. Day-ahead gas fell 4.9% to 43.75p/th, following the subsidence of Storm Darcy and the associated cold weather front, leaving much warmer temperatures across much of the UK, reducing gas demand. Day-ahead power rose 0.2% to £57.5/MWh, despite the warmer temperatures but supported by forecasts of notable declines in wind generation next week. March 21 gas was down 2.0% at 43.73p/th, and April 21 gas decreased 0.6% to 42.84p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 0.8% on average, as summer 21 and winter 21 gas dropped 0.8% and 0.3% respectively, subsiding to 41.14p/th and 50.47p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 0.6%. Summer 21 power decreased 1.1% to £51.87/MWh, while winter 21 lifted 0.3% to £59.76/MWh. Brent crude oil rose 4.7% to $63.65/bl this week. Brent crude broke 12-month highs again this week across multiple days. Prices across 15 and 16 February reached $63.26/bl. Prices broke their yearly high again on 17 February rising to $63.99/bl before climbing even higher to its years and weekly high of $64.47/bl on 18 February. EU ETS carbon prices grew this week, rising 1.4% to average €39.07/t. Prices achieved an all-time high again this week, reaching €40.21 on 16 February.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 19th February 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 12th February 2021
It has been a largely bearish week for both gas and power contracts, with some exceptions in seasonal summer contracts on the forward curve. Day-ahead gas fell 13.6% to 46.00p/th, with an oversupplied system at the week’s start and higher temperatures forecast for next week. Day-ahead power fell 7.4% to £57.4/MWh, following the gas price lower, compounded by stronger levels of wind generation, particularly at the week’s end. March 21 gas was down 9.3% at 44.62p/th, and April 21 gas decreased 5.9% to 43.11p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 1.0% on average. Summer 21 and winter 21 gas dropped 3.9% and 2.9% respectively, subsiding to 41.48p/th and 50.60p/th. Most seasonal power contracts also declined this week, down on average by 0.2%, as summer 21 power decreased 2.0% to £52.43/MWh, while winter 21 fell 2.0% to £59.60/MWh. In contrast, Brent crude oil rose again last week, up 5.3% to average $60.82/bl. The Brent crude price broke yearly highs on consecutive days, the first being on Monday 8 February reaching $60.10bl. Over the following two days the price rose a further $1.45/bl to reach its weekly and new yearly high of $61.55/bl. EU ETS carbon prices grew last week, rising 8.6% to average €38.52/t. Prices hit an all-time high of €39.46/t on Thursday and were buoyed by investor speculation on future price trajectory.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 12th February 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 5th February 2021
It has been a relatively mixed week in terms of pricing fundamentals for both gas and power markets. Most seasonal contracts saw price rises, while short-term and day-ahead contracts declined. Day-ahead gas fell 9.7% to 53.25p/th, with a period of warmer weather at the start of the week coupled with system oversupply. Similarly, day-ahead power lost 13.3% to £62.00/MWh, following strong wind generation at the week’s start. March 21 gas was up 3.5% at 49.20p/th, and April 21 gas decreased 1.9% to 45.81p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts increased this week, up by 1.1% on average. Summer 21 gas dropped 0.9% to 43.17p/th, while winter 21 gas increased 0.9% to 52.13p/th. All seasonal power contracts climbed this week, up on average by 2.7%. Summer 21 and winter 21 power lifted 1.9% and 3.7% respectively, rising to £53.49/MWh and £60.81/MWh. Brent crude oil rose again this week, up 3.3% to $57.76/bl. The market responded well to major crude producers demonstrating they were keeping in line with their output commitments, as a mechanism to combat market oversupply. Similarly, oil prices continue to benefit from extended supply cut pledges from Saudi Arabia for February and March, to combat fears of a lack of demand and market oversupply. EU ETS carbon prices rose 5.9% to average €35.46/t. Impending cold weather forecast across much of Europe and the UK will likely offer some support to prices.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 5th February 2021
Written By Graham Paul
