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Energy Wholesale Market Review


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 30th April 2021

It was a largely bullish week for gas and power markets this week, with exceptions on the day-ahead baseload power contract. Day-ahead gas rose 10.7% to 61.75p/th, supported by a consistently colder week, ultimately offsetting periods of system oversupply. Day-ahead power fell 7.5% to £62.00/MWh, weighed upon by strong and consistent wind generation throughout the week. May 21 gas was up 14.1% at 59.65p/th, and June 21 gas increased 7.9% to 57.34p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 4.9% on average, as winter 21 and summer 22 gas increased 9.4% and 6.4% respectively, lifting to 64.89p/th and 45.93p/th. All seasonal power contracts climbed this week, up on average by 4.8%. Winter 21 and summer 22 power rose 6.0% and 4.6% to £75.25/MWh and £55.35/MWh, respectively. Brent crude oil prices rose lifted 0.6% to average $66.59/bl. Meetings held with OPEC+ members to decide how to mitigate demand impacts from rising cases in India did provide a positive reaction to the market, easing demand concerns and subsequently supporting prices. Similarly, a more positive demand outlook ultimately offset the concerns in India and Asia this week. EU ETS carbon prices rose 4.5% to average €47.48/t. Prices once again broke all-time record highs, reaching a peak of €48.12/t on 28 April.

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 30th April 2021.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 23rd April 2021

It was a mixed week in terms of pricing fundamentals across gas and power markets this week, with majority of baseload power contracts rising, with the opposite said for gas contracts. Day-ahead gas fell 1.7% to 55.80p/th, following periods of system oversupply, strong LNG sendout and warmer weather. Conversely, day-ahead power rose 2.3% to £67/MWh, supported by periods of increased demand and reductions in available nuclear capacity at the weeks start. May 21 gas was up 0.6% at 52.26p/th, and June 21 gas increased 1.5% to 53.15p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 0.9% on average, while both winter 21 and summer 22 gas dropped 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, subsiding to 59.32p/th and 43.18p/th. Most seasonal power contracts rose this week, up on average by 0.6%, as winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 1.8% and 0.8% respectively, rising to £71.00/MWh and £52.90/MWh. Brent crude oil prices saw gains, rising 1.7% to average $66.17/bl. At the weeks start, prices were supported by a generally weakening dollar, combined with disruption to Libyan oil exports, alongside an unexpected decline in US crude inventories throughout the week. EU ETS carbon prices rose this week, rising 2.7% to average €45.43/t. Prices broke all-time record highs on more than one occasion but reached its highest peak of €46.70/t on 22 April.

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 23rd April 2021


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th April 2021

It was a collectively bullish week for gas and power contracts this week, building on price rises in recent weeks. Day-ahead gas rose 7.5% to 56.75p/th, following higher gas for power demand at the weeks start amid colder temperatures. Day-ahead power fell 1.5% to £65.5/MWh, on wavering demand as the week progressed and steadily rising temperatures. May 21 gas was up 9.1% at 51.96p/th, and June 21 gas increased 9.7% to 52.34p/th. All seasonal gas contracts rose this week, up by 5.1% on average, while both winter 21 and summer 22 gas increased 6.8% and 5.5% respectively, lifting to 59.64p/th and 43.55p/th. Elsewhere, seasonal power contracts saw similar gains, up on average by 3.8%, as winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 4.9% and 3.8% respectively, rising to £69.75/MWh and £52.50/MWh. Brent crude oil prices fell this week, down 1.4% to average $63.10/bl. Bearishness stemmed from demand concerns and easing of OPEC+ supply cuts. Prices at the weeks start were largely impacted by the continued uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 travel restrictions, impacting future oil demand growth. EU ETS carbon prices rose this week, rising 4.0% to average €43.32/t. Prices also broke a fresh all-time high again on 15 April at €44.19/t, driven by strong auction EUA demand.

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th April 2021.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th April 2021

It was a largely bullish week again for gas and power contracts this week. Day-ahead gas rose 3.5% to 52.80p/th, supported by the colder weather experienced across the UK in recent days. Day-ahead power increased 16.7% to £66.5/MWh, following gains made on the gas near curve, whilst also supported by low wind output throughout the week. May 21 gas was up 0.6% at 47.63p/th, and June 21 gas increased 0.7% to 47.70p/th. Seasonal gas contracts largely saw gains this week, up 0.7% on average, with winter 21 gas rising 1.4% to 55.83p/th, while summer 22 gas dropped 0.5% to 41.28p/th.  Most seasonal power contracts experienced similar movements, rising on average by 0.9%, as winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 1.5% and 1.0% respectively, rising to £66.50/MWh and £50.60/MWh. Brent crude oil prices fell this week, down 1.4% to average $63.10/bl. Bearishness stemmed from demand concerns and easing of OPEC+ supply cuts. Prices at the weeks start were largely impacted by the continued uncertainty surrounding Covid-19 travel restrictions, impacting future oil demand growth. EU ETS carbon prices rose this week, rising 4.0% to average €43.32/t. Prices also broke a fresh all-time high again on 6 April at €44.19/t, driven by high EUA demand with auctions recommencing after the Easter break.

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th April 2021.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 6th April 2021

Last week was largely bullish GB for gas and power markets, with some exceptions in longer-dated contracts across gas and power. Day-ahead gas rose 9.7% to 51.00p/th, supported by gradually declining temperatures as the week progressed and delayed LNG tanker arrivals into GB. Similarly, day-ahead power jumped 19.4% to £57.00/MWh, following the gas curve higher and benefitting from periods of reduced wind generation throughout the week. Most seasonal gas contracts increased last week, up by 0.3% on average, as winter 21 and summer 22 gas climbed 1.1% and 0.2% respectively, lifting to 55.08p/th and 41.48p/th. Most seasonal power contracts gained last week, up on average by 1.4%, Winter 21 and summer 22 power moved 0.9% and 0.2% higher to £65.50/MWh and £50.10/MWh, respectively. Brent crude oil prices rose 1.4% to average $64.00/bl, last week. Disruption on the Suez Canal continued to support prices last week, with tankers continuing to be diverted away from their usual shipping routes. However, the disruption was cleared mid-week, capping any further price rises as a result. EU ETS carbon prices lifted 0.8% to average €41.64/t. Gains on the Brent crude market fed through to carbon prices last week, and are still relatively high when compared to recent months. Similarly, cooler weather forecasts for across parts of Europe next week will support prices.

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 6th April 2021.

Written By Graham Paul

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