Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 30th July 2021
It was another mostly bullish week for gas and power contracts in GB this week, continuing trends observed across much of July. Day-ahead gas rose 13.3% to 102.00p/th, following periods of undersupply during the week and buoyed by prolonged maintenance works across the NCS reducing flows into GB from Norway. Day-ahead gas prices reached a three-year high on 29 July, at 103.75p/th. Day-ahead power lifted 5.2% to £101/MWh, taking direction from notable gains made in near-term gas markets and low wind output during the week. August 21 gas was up 14.9% at 102.20p/th, and September 21 gas increased 12.7% to 102.20p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 5.0% on average, with winter 21 and summer 22 gas increasing 8.1% and 7.4%, to 101.20p/th and 60.15p/th respectively. All seasonal power contracts traded higher this week, up on average by 3.9%. Winter 21 and summer 22 power went up 6.3% and 5.1% respectively, rising to £100.95/MWh and £66.20/MWh. Brent crude oil rebounded this week, rising from losses seen in the week prior. Subsequently, prices were 4.8% higher at $74.93/bl. This week was the first time in almost a month where carbon prices rose; following three consecutive weeks of decline the EU ETS reversed this trend, up 2.7% to €53.38/t. The UK ETS shared this bullish sentiment, also up marginally to £43.40/t.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 30th July 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 23rd July 2021
It was a largely bullish week again for GB gas and power markets this week, building on recent upward drivers. Subsequently, day-ahead gas rose 3.1% to 90.00p/th, rebounding from losses in the week prior, driven by the continued low levels of gas in storage and reduced North Sea pipeline flows in the week . Day-ahead power rose 4.1% to £96.00/MWh, buoyed by higher gas prices and low wind output. August 21 gas was up 2.5% at 88.97p/th, and September 21 gas increased 3.1% to 90.65p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 0.5% on average, with winter 21 and summer 22 gas rising 1.5% and 0.4% respectively, lifting to 93.60p/th and 56.00p/th. Seasonal power contracts saw similar movements, up on average by 0.1%, as winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, growing to £95.00/MWh and £63.00/MWh. Brent crude oil fell 4.5% to average $71.47/bl this week. A significant driving force of downward movements this week for Brent crude prices can be attributed to the outcome of recent OPEC+ discussions. The discussions concluded with members agreeing to boost production in August. It was a third consecutive week of bearish price movements across both UK and European carbon markets. The EU ETS fell 1.6% to €51.99/t, with the UK ETS falling 0.8% to £43.30/t. Whilst prices across both the UK and EU ETS dropped, prices are still high by comparison to prices earlier this year.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 23rd July 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th July 2021
It was a predominately bearish week for gas and power contracts this week, slipping from record highs across most markets. As a result, day-ahead gas fell 3.5% to 87.30p/th, weighed by periods of system oversupply and generally wavering demand throughout the week . Similarly, day-ahead power dropped 4.9% to £92.25/MWh, falling from record highs the week prior, primarily driven by periods of increased wind output and taking direction from losses in gas markets on the near-curve. August 21 gas was down 2.2% at 86.83p/th, and September 21 gas decreased 2.4% to 87.96p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 1.9% on average, while both winter 21 and summer 22 gas dropped 2.9% and 3.6% respectively, subsiding to 92.25p/th and 55.79p/th. Elsewhere, all seasonal power contracts experienced losses like their gas counterparts, down on average by 3.1%, as winter 21 power decreased 3.8% to £94.77/MWh, while summer 22 fell 3.1% to £62.75/MWh. It was a largely bearish week across tracked international commodity markets also. Brent crude oil dipped 0.8% to average $74.87/bl this week. It was a second consecutive week of downward price movements across both UK and European carbon markets. The EU ETS lost 4.2% to €52.82/t, with the UK ETS falling 4.4% to £43.63/t.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th July 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th July 2021
It was a relatively mixed week for pricing fundamentals across gas and power markets this week, with competing bullish and bearish trends observed. Day-ahead gas fell 7.5% to 90.50p/th, but still remained signifcantly higher than expected for this time of year in what was quite a volatile week for gas prices. Periods of system oversupply, weaker demand and higher UK domestic production weighed on prices. Alternatively, day-ahead power rose 4.9% to £97.0/MWh, continuing its recent bullish run, supported by weak wind output and reduce nuclear availability. August 21 gas was up 0.5% at 88.81p/th, and September 21 gas increased 1.4% to 90.11p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 0.9% on average. Similarly, the majority of seasonal power contracts rose this week, up on average by 0.2%. Brent crude oil crept up 0.4% to average $75.46/bl this week. Prices reached a fresh two-year high of $77.32/bl on 6 July. Prices this week primarily followed the direction of OPEC+ supply strategy talks. At the week’s start, prices were supported by optimism surrounding the proposed supply strategy for the coming months but later subsided as the week progressed with confidence in these meetings lessened. EU ETS carbon prices fell 2.4% to average €55.11/t. Similarly, UK ETS carbon fell 3.2% to average £45.62/t.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th July 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 2nd July 2021
Power and gas contracts continued their recent bullish run this week, with record highs observed across both day-ahead contracts. Day-ahead gas leapt 21.0% to 97.85p/th, the contracts highest price since March 2018. Near-term gas prices have been supported by high gas-for-power demand, coupled with curtailed Norwegian supplies and low gas storage levels. Longer dated gas contracts have been supported by unseasonably low gas storage levels across Europe, along with high LNG prices amid strong Asian demand. August 21 gas was up 12.3% at 88.41p/th, and September 21 gas increased 10.6% to 88.85p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 4.6% on average. These price movements fed through to the power market with the day-ahead power price up 5.1% to £92.50/MWh, rising to a four-month high in the week. EU ETS carbon rose 4.5% to average €56.48/t, reaching an all-time high on Thursday. Elsewhere, UK ETS carbon rose 2.7% to average £47.12/t, while Brent crude oil gained 0.4% to average $75.13/bl this week.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 2nd July 2021.
Written By Graham Paul
