Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 28th January 2022
This week generally represented more bullish sentiment, noting there were some periods of bearish movements particularly across near-term power prices. Day-ahead power fell, lowering 33.6% to £181.00/MWh, with stronger wind and renewable generation seen across this week, a trend forecast to continue into next week. Alternatively, near-term gas prices enjoyed a period of strong price growth compared with the previous week. In support of this, day-ahead gas rose 17.1% to 219.00p/th, following intensifying gas supply concerns driven by on-going political conflict between Ukraine and Russia. February 22 gas was up 19.7% at 223.00p/th, and March 22 gas increased 20.3% to 223.00p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 20.6% on average, while both summer 22 and winter 22 gas increased 31.6% and 31.1% respectively, lifting to 215.00p/th and 224.00p/th. All seasonal power contracts saw upward price growth this week, up on average by 15.1%, as summer 22 and winter 22 expanded 24.3% and 21.6% respectively, rising to £197.00/MWh and £203.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 28th January 2022.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 21st January 2022
This week represented a relatively mixed picture for gas and power price movements, but slightly favouring a more bearish outlook overall, particularly on front-month and longer dated seasonal contracts more specifically. In support of this bearish sentiment, day-ahead gas fell 13.8% to 187.0p/th, following periods of increased Norwegian gas flows into the UK, softening an on-going tight gas supply picture between Europe and the UK at present. Day-ahead power represented the comparable outlier, rising 14.0% to £272.5/MWh, a second consecutive week of price growth, driven primarily by lowering wind outturn tightening system margins and higher trending demand. February 22 gas was down 13.9% at 186.3p/th, and March 22 gas decreased 13.4% to 185.3p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 4.4% on average, while both summer 22 and winter 22 gas dropped 6.4% and 6.4% respectively, subsiding to 163.4p/th and 170.9p/th. The majority of seasonal power contracts also saw losses this week, down on average by 2.3%, as summer 22 power decreased 3.4% to £158.5/MWh, while winter 22 fell 4.0% to £167.0/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 21st January 2022.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 14th January 2022
Generally, this week represented a predominately bearish sentiment for gas and power prices, with some exceptions on day-ahead contracts. In keeping with the largely downward movement of prices, day-ahead gas fell 4.4% to 217.00p/th, following periods of warmer weather stifling heating demand, a trend expected to extend into next week too. Increased LNG deliveries into UK terminals also increased LNG send-out and eased the current tight gas supply picture slightly. Day-ahead power rose to the contrary, up 11.2% to £239.00/MWh, with much lower periods of wind generation observed, set to continue across much of next week. Font-month contracts saw pronounced losses, with February 22 gas down 8.4% at 216.39p/th, and March 22 gas lowering 8.0% to 213.93p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 7.9% on average, with both summer 22 and winter 22 gas dropping 15.0% and 14.2% respectively, subsiding to 174.66p/th and 182.61p/th. This bearish trend was shared with seasonal power contracts, down on average by 7.0%, as summer 22 power decreased 11.6% to £164.00/MWh, while winter 22 fell 13.0% to £174.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 14th January 2022.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 7th January 2022
This week represented a largely bullish week for gas and power prices, after a period of relative price suppression in previous weeks, driven by milder weather and a healthier gas supply picture. Looking at this week more specifically, day-ahead gas rose 30.3% to 227.00p/th, following periods of colder weather in the week, coupled with higher European gas prices and Russian supply concerns. Day-ahead power rose 30.3% to £215.00/MWh, following strong gains made in near-term gas prices, exacerbated by lower periods of wind generation in the week. February 22 gas was up 24.3% at 236.22p/th, and March 22 gas increased 29.8% to 232.42p/th. All seasonal gas contracts rose this week, up by 20.1% on average. Similar movements were seen across seasonal power contracts, rising on average by 10.8%. Carbon prices saw bullish movements this week, with the UK ETS rising 0.6% to average £75.98/t. Similarly, the EU ETS rose, up 7.1% to €85.23/t. Brent crude prices rebounded this week too, up 3.7% to average $80.55/bl.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 7th January 2022.
Written By Graham Paul
