Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 29th July 2022
The majority of gas and power contracts reported gains this week. Day-ahead gas grew 9.2% to 308.0p/th, finding continued price support from disruption to European supply via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, while also being bolstered by higher gas-for-power demand. August 22 gas lost 2.0% to 315.0p/th, while September 22 gas traded 3.7% higher at 372.8p/th. Amid ongoing volatility, seasonal gas contracts continued their recent bullish momentum, increasing by an average of 9.2% week-on-week. Following its gas counterpart, day-ahead power climbed 32.8% to £310.0/MWh, being buoyed further by low wind output mid-week. August 22 power rose 2.7% to £300.0/MWh, and September 22 power went up 1.4% to £355.0/MWh. Further along the forward curve, seasonal power contracts increased by 11.7% on average this week with the summer 24 contract reporting the greatest price increase, up 18.1% to £215.0/MWh. Brent crude oil gained 2.5% to average $106.68/bl amid ongoing tight supply concerns. EU ETS carbon lost 4.6% to average €77.70/t and UK ETS carbon slipped 5.2% to average £77.24/t.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 29th July 2022.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 22nd July 2022
This week we observed a relatively mixed picture for the movements of wholesale gas and power contracts. Generally, we saw near-term gas contracts climb, whereas the power equivalent contract observed notable losses week-on-week. The week saw day-ahead gas prices rise 38.6% to 282.00p/th, following an unplanned outages at Norway’s FLAGS exist terminal, reducing Norwegian gas flows into GB and compiling greater levels of system undersupply during select periods in the week. Conversely, day-ahead power fell 30.3% to £233.5/MWh, amid reduced demand seen across the week amid continued higher temperatures and periods of heightened wind output. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 0.7% on average, with winter 22 gas dropping 3.1% to 410.05p/th, whereas summer 23 gas increased 2.2% to 291.05p/th. Elsewhere, seasonal power contracts saw gains, up on average by 4.5%, as winter 22 and summer 23 expanded 7.9% and 2.0% respectively, rising to £478.00/MWh and £250.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 22nd July 2022.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending15th July 2022
Wholesale power contracts experienced mixed price movements this week, whereas all tracked gas contracts registered week-on-week price losses. Subsequently, day-ahead gas fell 8.3% to 203.50p/th, following periods of system oversupply amid stronger UKCS production – coupled with anticipated lower demand into the weeks end, driven by the forecast heatwave in the UK. Conversely, day-ahead power rose 17.5% to £335.00/MWh, upward price movement can be attributed to lower wind outturn during the week, and strong export to the continent. Unlike the day-ahead baseload power contract, the front seasonal power contracts fell – with August 22 power down 18.3% at £245.00/MWh, and September 22 power decreasing 8.3% to £330.00/MWh. Elsewhere, most gas contracts declined this week, down by 5.7% on average, while both winter 22 and summer 23 gas dropped 7.1% and 9.6% respectively, subsiding to 423.20p/th and 284.80p/th. Similar downward price movements were seen across most seasonal power contracts, falling on average by 1.1%, with summer 23 down 7.5% to £245.00/MWh and the winter 23 contract dropping 3.1% to £264.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending15th July 2022.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 8th July 2022
Wholesale gas and power contracts shared collective price rises across all tracked contracts this week. Day-ahead gas rose 38.8% to 222.00p/th, following softer LNG-sendout due to maintenance at Dragon terminal, coupled with the threat of oil and gas strike action in Norway at the week’s start, in addition to select periods of outages across the UKCS. Day-ahead power rose 61.9% to £285.00/MWh, sharing the strong gains made from its equivalent gas contract, coupled with periods of reduced wind output in the week in parallel. Bullish sentiment in near term contracts was also seen further along the forward curve , with August 22 gas up 21.1% at 299.25p/th, while September 22 gas increased 20.4% to 381.24p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 28.0% on average, while both winter 22 and summer 23 gas increased 21.3% and 35.9% respectively, lifting to 455.75p/th and 314.95p/th. Like gas, all seasonal power contracts reported week-on-week gains, up on average by 23.1%, as winter 22 and summer 23 lifted 17.1% and 29.3% respectively, to £410.00/MWh and £265.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 8th July 2022.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 1st July 2022
Wholesale gas and power contracts registered gains compared to the previous week, though with some outliers against this trend. Day-ahead gas represented one of small number of contracts which saw prices retreat week-on-week, subsequently falling 5.9% to 160.00p/th, following periods of stronger Norwegian flows into GB, coupled with higher LNG-send out. Conversely, day-ahead power rose 1.1% to £176.00/MWh, amid bullish movements of near-term gas prices at the week’s start propping up power prices for the remainder of the week, coupled with periods of low renewables output in tandem. Elsewhere, August 22 gas was up 2.8% at 247.10p/th, and September 22 gas increased 6.5% to 316.69p/th. Similar to front month contracts, seasonal gas contracts boosted this week too, up by 7.2% on average, while both winter 22 and summer 23 gas increased 11.2% and 8.5% respectively, lifting to 375.85p/th and 231.68p/th. Somewhat against their gas counterpart contracts, seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 1.9%, as winter 22 power decreased 20.6% to £250.00/MWh. On the international commodity front, Brent crude prices rose 3.1% this week to average $115.16/bl, while the EU ETS climbed 1.4% to average €84.96/t and the UK ETS lifted 2.4% to £82.95/t.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 1st July 2022
Written By Graham Paul
