Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 25th November 2022
This week saw the continuation of bullish price movements across gas and power wholesale contracts, but we continue to note the ongoing pricing disparity between day-ahead contracts and those further out on the forward curve. Day-ahead gas rose 11.8% to 152.00p/th, following the gradual decline in seasonal average temperatures this week, placing higher demand on gas-fired assets to meet demand coupled with select periods of system undersupply observed throughout the week. Day-ahead power rose 64.5% to £255.00/MWh, following the upward price direction of its gas equivalent contract and forecasts of significantly tightened system margins expected early next week - driving a £113.00/MWh price rise from 24 into 25 November. Elsewhere, December 22 gas was up 10.4% at 286.00p/th, and January 23 gas increased 6.4% to 317.00p/th. The majority of seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 2.0% on average, while both summer 23 and winter 23 gas increased 9.4% and 6.5% respectively, lifting to 304.00p/th and 319.50p/th. All seasonal power contracts saw gains this week, up on average by 5.0%, as summer 23 and winter 23 expanded 9.7% and 7.7% respectively, rising to £277.00/MWh and £315.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 25th November 2022
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 18th November 2022
This week saw the reintroduction of more bullish pricing sentiment across gas and power wholesale contracts, noting the ongoing pricing disparity between day-ahead contracts and those further out on the forward curve. Day-ahead gas rose 33.3% to 136.00p/th, following the continual decline in seasonal average temperatures and taking bullish direction from marked gains in European gas prices in the week. Day-ahead power rose 14.8% to £155/MWh, primarily following the upward price direction of its equivalent gas contract and the higher demand placed on more expensive forms of generation such as CCGTs and gas peaking plant. December 22 gas was up 5.7% at 259.00p/th and January 23 gas increased 2.8% to 298.00p/th. Likewise, most seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 2.2% on average. Summer 23 gas and winter 23 gas increased 6.9% and 2.0% respectively, lifting to 278.00p/th and 300.00p/th. Like gas, the majority of seasonal power contracts reported gains this week, up on average by 5.8%, as summer 23 and winter 23 expanded 7.4% and 5.2% respectively, rising to £252.50/MWh and £292.50/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 18th November 2022.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 11th November 2022
This week saw the continuation of predominately bearish price trends across gas and power wholesale contracts, noting the on-going marked disparity between day-ahead contracts and those further out on the forward curve. All tracked GB wholesale contracts saw losses week-on-week, the noteworthy exception being the day-ahead power contract. Day-ahead gas fell 6.4% to 102.00p/th, amid continued higher levels of LNG imports reaching UK terminals, softening the near-term gas supply balance and periods of warmer weather reducing heating consumption on average. On the contrary, day-ahead power rose 28.6% to £135.00/MWh, with periods of lower wind outturn tightening system margins. Elsewhere, December 22 gas was down 18.6% at 245.00p/th, and January 23 gas decreased 13.8% to 290.00p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 6.5% on average, while both summer 23 and winter 23 gas dropped 11.9% and 6.1% respectively, subsiding to 260.00p/th and 294.00p/th. Like gas, seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 8.9%, as summer 23 power decreased 13.0% to £235.00/MWh, while winter 23 fell 7.3% to £278.00/MWh.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 11th November 2022
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 11th November 2022.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 4th November 2022
This week saw the continuation of predominately bearish price trends across gas and power wholesale contracts, noting however the marked disparity between day-ahead contracts and those further out on the forward curve. Lowering levels of wind outturn seen as the week matured, coupled with colder temperatures after a markedly warm October encouraged strong price rises on day-ahead gas and power contracts this week. Day-ahead gas rose 74.4% to 109.00p/th, driven in part by some of the aforementioned market fundamentals. Like gas, day-ahead power rose 10.5% to £105.00/MWh, following the strong upward movements of its equivalent gas contract. Elsewhere, December 22 gas was down 15.0% at 301.00p/th, and January 23 gas decreased 8.3% to 336.50p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 7.1% on average, a potential response to the strong booked volumes of LNG reaching UK and European terminals, easing some of the future gas supply concerns in the medium-term. Likewise, seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 5.9%, as summer 23 power decreased 10.0% to £270.00/MWh, while winter 23 fell 4.8% to £300.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 4th November 2022.
Written By Graham Paul
