Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 26th May 2023
This week power and gas contracts continued to follow the bearish trend seen across much of 2023 to date, inclusive of longer-term contracts. We observed above average temperatures for large periods across the reporting window – acting to supress gas and power demand. Subsequently, day-ahead gas fell 13.4% to 57.60p/th, following milder weather and reduced demand mitigating the impact of interrupted Norwegian flows due to maintenance. Day-ahead power fell 15.0% to £65.00/MWh, following its gas counterpart lower paired with easing demand throughout the week. June 23 gas was down 14.4% at 58.20p/th, and July 23 gas decreased 15.4% to 57.10p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 7.1% on average, while both winter 23 and summer 24 gas dropped 9.2% and 9.0% respectively, subsiding to 113.00p/th and 111.00p/th. All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 9.4%, as winter 23 power decreased 12.7% to £123.50/MWh, while summer 24 fell 11.3% to £102.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 26th May 2023.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 19th May 2023
This week saw the continuation of lowering gas and power prices, extending upon bearish price movements observed in the previous week, including longer term contracts. We observed above average temperatures for large periods across the reporting window – acting to supress gas and power demand. As a result, day-ahead gas fell 14.6% to 67.50p/th following strong gas storage levels, lower demand, and a steady supply of LNG continuing to reach UK ports. Day-ahead power declined 11.0% to £76.50/t, following the bearish movements of its equivalent gas contract, coupled with periods of high renewable output. June 23 gas was down 14.1% at 68.00p/th, and July 23 gas decreased 14.6% to 67.50p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 9.2% on average, while both winter 23 and summer 24 gas dropped 10.8% and 9.0% respectively, subsiding to 124.50p/th and 122.00p/th. Similar to gas, all seasonal power contracts saw losses this week, down on average by 4.4%, as winter 23 power decreased 6.0% to £141.50/MWh, while summer 24 fell 5.0% to £115.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 19th May 2023.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 12th May 2023
This week represented a mixed picture for wholesale gas and power contracts, especially when acknowledging the difference between shorter and longer termed contracts. On shorter-dated contracts, a mostly bearish sentiment was observed – whereas prices further out on the forward curve recorded gains, a potential response to fears surrounding future LNG supply as China returns to pre-COVID growth trajectories suggest some market commentators. Day-ahead gas fell 3.1% to 78.50p/th following strong supply levels. Conversely, day-ahead power registered gains week-on-week - rising 1.2% to £86.00MWh, as periods of low wind generation acted to tighten system margins. June 23 gas fell 2.2% to 79.20p/th, and July 23 gas dropped 2.5% to 79.00p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts, winter 23 being the exception, registered gains – seeing a 1.4% increase overall. Similarly, all seasonal baseload power contracts, excluding S25, rose week-on-week seeing a growth level of 1.5% overall.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 12th May 2023.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 5th May 2023
This week, all tracked wholesale gas and power prices saw losses. Day-ahead gas fell 12.0% to 81.00p/th, as above seasonal-average temperatures led to decreased LDZ demand, with higher renewables output also seeing decreased gas-for-power demand. Similarly, day-ahead power fell 15.0% to £85.00/MWh, following the bearish price movements of its equivalent gas contract, a result of increased wind output levels. June 23 gas was down 14.1% at 81.00p/th, and July 23 gas decreased 8.7% to 81.00p/th. Further out on the curve, long-term contracts also recorded losses, with all seasonal gas contracts lowering this week, down on average by 7.9%. Winter 23 and summer 24 gas fell 7.9% and 8.3% respectively, dropping to 140.00p/th and 132.00p/th. Seasonal power contracts also reported losses this week, dropping by 5.7% on average. Winter 23 and summer 24 slipped 4.8% and 7.8% respectively, to £148.50/MWh and £117.50/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 5th May 2023.
Written By Graham Paul
