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Energy Wholesale Market Review


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 26th April 2024

Across the week ending 26 April, most tracked gas and power contracts registered losses, with the baseload June 24 contract experiencing the only gain last week. Day-ahead gas fell 3.6% to 74.25p/th, as prices were influenced by forecasts of above-average temperatures in the week ahead acting to reduce domestic heating demand. Moreover, rising wind outturn projections for 29 April act to limit gas-for-power requirements as wind will make up a greater proportion of the generation mix. Likewise, day-ahead power dropped 8.4% to £70.39/MWh, following the bearish price movements of its equivalent gas contract. Moreover, May 24 gas was down 5.3% at 72.90p/th, and June 24 gas also decreased 5.3% to 71.83p/th. All seasonal gas contracts lowered last week, down 8.3% on average. Similarly, all seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 3.1%, as summer 25 fell 3.1% to £71.20/MWh, and winter 25 dropped 2.0% to £80.85/MWh.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 26th April 2024.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 19th April 2024

Across the week ending 19 April, tracked gas and power contracts predominantly registered gains, however some of those further out on the forward curve saw losses. Day-ahead gas rose 6.3% to 77.05p/th, due to higher gas-for-power forecasts following lower wind generation projections and below-average temperatures. Likewise, day-ahead power rose 189.8% to £76.81/MWh, returning to a more typical price after the notably high wind generation over the past two weeks, finding support from the movements registered across its gas counterpart, and the aforementioned lower wind generation forecasts, which will increase the reliance on more expensive forms of power generation. Moreover, May 24 gas was up 2.7% at 76.95p/th, and June 24 gas increased 2.1% to 75.85p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts lowered last week, however a 39.9% increase to the winter 26 contract, rising to 113.28p/th, led to overall growth across seasonal contracts, up 6.5% on average. Similarly, most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 0.6%, as summer 25 fell 1.3% to £73.50/MWh, and winter 25 dropped 1.2% to £82.50/MWh. Brent crude oil and the UK and EU carbon markets continue to be impacted by global geopolitical events, and as such it is expected prices will remain volatile in the week ahead.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 22nd April 2024.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 12th April 2024

It was a predominantly bullish week across most tracked gas and power contracts this week, with day-ahead power the exception to this trend, registering a notable decrease. Day-ahead gas rose 15.5% to 72.50p/th, following higher gas demand ahead of expected colder temperatures throughout next week. Day-ahead power, however, fell 54.5% to £26.50/MWh, following the anticipated increase to wind outturn early next week – falling to the lowest prices seen since July 2020. However, May 24 gas was up 15.6% at 74.90p/th, and June 24 gas increased 15.0% to 74.30p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 10.2% on average, with both winter 24 and summer 25 gas increasing 13.7% and 14.9% respectively, lifting to 92.10p/th and 86.40p/th. Similarly, all seasonal power contracts saw gains this week, up on average by11.4%, as winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 10.9% and 12.7% respectively, rising to £82.60/MWh and £74.40/MWh. Brent crude experienced a bullish week following continued tensions across the Middle East, with the potential for conflict to spread to further regions and impact oil supply levels.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 12th April 2024.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 5th April 2024

This week represented a predominantly bearish picture for wholesale gas and power contracts. Primarily, we observed losses due to greater week-on-week wind generation reducing the requirement for more expensive gas-fired assets to meet domestic demand requirements. Likewise, the return of the Hartlepool 2 and Heysham 2 nuclear reactors after continued outages led to higher available power capacity to the network across the week. As a result, day-ahead gas fell 8.1% to 62.75p/th, with the arrival of above-average temperatures in the week ahead acting to limit domestic heating demand. Likewise, day-ahead power fell 11.7% to £58.25/MWh, weighed on by losses across its gas counterpart. Across the front-month contracts, May 24 gas was down 5.0% at 64.80p/th, and June 24 gas decreased 4.5% to 64.60p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 0.3% on average, with winter 24 and summer 25 gas dropping 1.5% and 0.8% respectively, subsiding to 81.00p/th and 75.20p/th. All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 3.1%, as winter 24 power decreased 2.9% to £74.50/MWh, and summer 25 fell 3.2% to £66.10/MWh.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 5th April 2024.

Written By Graham Paul

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