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Energy Wholesale Market Review


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 31st May 2024

Last week saw mixed movements across tracked power and gas contracts, with day-ahead gas rising 0.3% to 82.50p/th, following maintenance at gas fields and terminals across the Norwegian and UK continental shelves, in tandem with reduced temperatures across GB. Similarly, June 24 gas was up 0.7% at 82.60p/th, and July 24 gas increased 0.9% to 82.90p/th. Opposing its gas counterpart, day-ahead power fell 5.7% to £74.44/MWh, influenced by higher levels of wind generation reducing gas for power demand. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 0.6% on average, with both winter 24 and summer 25 gas dropping 0.3% and 1.1% respectively, subsiding to 101.35p/th and 91.25p/th. Longer term contracts remain influenced by strong gas storage stocks across Europe, currently sitting at 70% fullness. Conversely, most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.2%, as winter 24 power expanded 0.4% to £92.25/MWh, and winter 25 rose 0.6% to £90.25/MWh. Brent crude oil found bullish sentiment rising 0.6% to $83.15/bl, influenced by ongoing conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on 2 June.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 31st May 2024.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 24th May 2024

All power and gas contracts rose last week, finding bullish influence from reductions across gas flows from the Norwegian and UK Continental Shelves, and increased competition for the procurement of LNG, as a heatwave across northeast Asia bolstered gas-for-power demand. As a result, day-ahead gas rose 10.8% week-on-week to 82.25p/th, reaching the highest level seen since December 2023 at 88.00p/th on 23 May. Similarly, day-ahead power rose 10.1% to £78.9/MWh, finding upwards support from the movements registered across its gas counterpart, and reduced wind generation across the UK throughout the week. June 24 gas was up 10.5% at 82.03p/th, and July 24 gas increased 11.1% to 82.18p/th. All seasonal gas contracts saw gains last week, rising by 4.4% on average, with both winter 24 and summer 25 gas increasing 8.0% and 5.1% respectively, lifting to 101.65p/th and 92.25p/th. Similar movement were seen, with seasonal power contracts, up on average by 6.7%, as winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 9.0% and 5.6% respectively, rising to £91.85/MWh and £81.50/MWh. LNG prices also registered gains across the week, driven higher by increased gas prices across Europe and greater demand from Asian markets.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday

 

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 24th May 2024.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 17th May 2024

Most tracked power and gas contracts rose last week, with day-ahead gas increasing 4.0% to 74.25p/th, following maintenance across the Barrow North and St Fergus NSNP gas terminals, impacting flows from the UK Continental Shelf. Likewise, day-ahead power prices on 17 May found support from higher UK gas-for-power demand projections for 20 May, in tandem with decreased flows across the Langeled pipeline due to maintenance. As a result, day-ahead power rose 5.4% to £71.65/MWh, as overall wind generation in the week ahead is set to be lower than the levels seen across the week ending 17 May. June 24 gas was up 12.1% at 74.25p/th, and July 24 gas increased 8.0% to 73.95p/th, with longer-term gas contracts finding support from increased Asian LNG demand. Moreover, all seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 12.9% on average, with both winter 24 and summer 25 gas increasing 13.7% and 16.6% respectively, lifting to 94.10p/th and 87.75p/th. Similarly, all seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 2.6%, as winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 2.8% and 2.2% respectively, rising to £84.30/MWh and £77.15/MWh.Most tracked power and gas contracts rose last week, with day-ahead gas increasing 4.0% to 74.25p/th, following maintenance across the Barrow North and St Fergus NSNP gas terminals, impacting flows from the UK Continental Shelf. Likewise, day-ahead power prices on 17 May found support from higher UK gas-for-power demand projections for 20 May, in tandem with decreased flows across the Langeled pipeline due to maintenance. As a result, day-ahead power rose 5.4% to £71.65/MWh, as overall wind generation in the week ahead is set to be lower than the levels seen across the week ending 17 May. June 24 gas was up 12.1% at 74.25p/th, and July 24 gas increased 8.0% to 73.95p/th, with longer-term gas contracts finding support from increased Asian LNG demand. Moreover, all seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 12.9% on average, with both winter 24 and summer 25 gas increasing 13.7% and 16.6% respectively, lifting to 94.10p/th and 87.75p/th. Similarly, all seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 2.6%, as winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 2.8% and 2.2% respectively, rising to £84.30/MWh and £77.15/MWh.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 17th May 2024.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 10th May 2024

Day-ahead gas rose 0.4% to 74.57p/th last week, following reduced Norwegian gas flows due to maintenance across various gas fields, however, stronger gains were limited by above-average temperatures acting to reduce gas demand. Opposing the movements seen across its gas counterpart, day-ahead power fell 16.2% to £61.16/MWh, finding bearish influence from stronger projections of wind generation for 13 May, acting to reduce the reliance on more expensive forms of power generation. Similarly, the remaining tracked gas contracts registered losses, with June 24 gas down 1.4% at 72.60p/th, and July 24 gas falling 1.5% to 72.35p/th. Moreover, all seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 1.2% on average. Conversely, most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.7%. Brent crude oil continued with the recent downward movements experienced last week. Subsequently, prices were 2.5% lower at $83.37/bl, driven down by weaker-than-expected Chinese demand. The EU ETS registered gains this week, up 3.6% to €72.00/t, and the UK ETS grew too, up 3.7% to £37.95/t, supported by reduced wind generation across the past week.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 10th May 2024.


Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 3rd May 2024

It was a collectively bullish week across most tracked gas and power contracts last week. In support of this, day-ahead gas rose 0.1% to 74.30p/th, following reduced wind output forecasts across the week ahead, acting to raise total domestic gas-for-power demand. However, stronger gains were limited by above-average temperatures, acting to reduce heating demand across GB. Likewise, experiencing a gain greater than its gas counterpart, day-ahead power rose 3.7% to £73.00/MWh, similarly supported by reduced wind generation projections, acting to tighten system margins and increase the reliance on more expensive forms of power generation. Similarly, June 24 gas was up 2.5% at 73.60p/th, and July 24 gas increased 3.5% to 73.45p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week too, up by 3.1% on average, with winter 24 and summer 25 gas increasing 3.7% and 5.4% respectively, lifting to 93.40p/th and 87.50p/th. Most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 3.5%, as winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 1.8% and 5.7% respectively, rising to £81.25/MWh and £75.25/MWh, whereas summer 26 fell 1.0% to £63.50/MWh.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday

 

Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 3rd May 2024.

Written By Graham Paul

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