Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 28th May 2021
It was a largely bearish week for most tracked gas and power contracts this week, with some exceptions in the longer dated seasonal contracts. In support of these bearish movements, day-ahead power fell 0.3% to £73.00/MWh, afflicted by warmer temperatures as the week matured combined with wavering demand and lowering gas prices feeding through on the near curve. June 21 gas was down 4.4% at 60.57p/th, and July 21 gas decreased 2.3% to 60.38p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 2.5% on average. Winter 21 and summer 22 gas dropped 1.0% and 2.3% to 68.36p/th and 46.90p/th, respectively. Most seasonal power contracts decreased this week, down on average by 1.0%, as winter 21 power slipped 0.2% to £81.00/MWh, while summer 22 fell 1.9% to £58.35/MWh. Brent crude oil edged 1.0% higher to average $68.52/bl. The most notable driving force for bullish Brent crude prices this week was the on-going negotiations around a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. News circulated that such discussions were not operating as smoothly as first thought which fed into some uncertainty about the deal going ahead, lending support to prices. EU ETS carbon prices remained high, but lost 1.1% to average €52.65/t. Similar to its European counterpart, UK ETS fell this week, down 1% from the week prior to reach £50.17/t.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 28th May 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 21st May 2021
All gas and power contracts recorded losses this week. Day-ahead power was down 10.7% to end the week at £73.25/MWh, amid stronger wind output, but remains unseasonably high with strong demand and high gas prices lending support. All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 3.6%. Winter 21 power decreased 3.9% to £81.20/MWh, while summer 22 fell 4.8% to £59.50/MWh. Day-ahead gas fell 0.4% to 66.00p/th, with prices remaining high amid unusually cold weather and high carbon prices. Month-ahead gas lost 7.1% to 63.39p/th. Seasonal gas contracts mirrored their power counterparts, declining by 3.9% on average. Both winter 21 and summer 22 gas dropped 6.4% and 7.0% respectively, subsiding to 69.07p/th and 48.00p/th. Brent crude oil fell 0.5% to average $67.82/bl. Economic reopening in Europe and the US was countered by demand concerns over surging COVID-19 cases in Asia and expectations that sanctions on Iranian oil exports will be lifted. EU ETS carbon lost 0.6% to average €53.23/t, after some profit-taking this week. UK ETS carbon ended its first week of trading to average £47.87/t, outturning £2.12/t higher on average against the equivalent EU ETS price.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 21st May 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 14th May 2021
It was a collectively bullish week across most tracked gas and power contracts this week. In support of this, day-ahead gas rose 6.9% to 66.25p/th, following cooler temperatures at the weeks start and higher gas-for-power demand amid weaker wind generation. Day-ahead power rose 18.4% to £82/MWh, finding support from prolonged periods of weaker wind generation in the week, lowering demand and record high carbon prices. June 21 gas was up 10.5% at 68.25p/th, and July 21 gas increased 9.8% to 65.86p/th. Seasonal gas contacts experienced gains, rising by 5.7% on average, with winter 21 and summer 22 gas increasing 8.7% and 7.7% respectively, lifting to 73.77p/th and 51.59p/th. Similar movements were seen in seasonal power contracts, which averaged 6.9% higher, as winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 8.1% and 7.8% respectively, rising to £84.46/MWh and £62.50/MWh. Brent crude oil prices slipped this week, down 0.7% to average $68.18/bl. The weeks start saw supply disruption from a cyber-attack on the US Colonial Pipeline causing a temporary shutdown, supporting oil prices. However, the rising number of COVID-19 cases across India and select parts of Asia ultimately overshadowed the aforementioned bullish price movements. EU ETS carbon prices rose this week, rising 8.9% to average €53.53/t. Prices once again broke all-time record highs, reaching €55.69/t on 14 May.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 14th May 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 7th May 2021
It was a largely bullish week again for gas and power markets. Day-ahead gas rose 0.4% to 62.00p/th, following periods of system undersupply, coupled with colder temperatures and a drop in LNG send out. Day-ahead power rose 11.7% to £69.25/MWh, with periods of notably low wind generation and reduced temperatures generally throughout the week. Record carbon highs also fed through into short-term power prices. June 21 gas was up 7.8% at 61.79p/th, and July 21 gas increased 7.4% to 59.98p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 3.3% on average, while both winter 21 and summer 22 gas increased 4.6% and 4.3% respectively, lifting to 67.86p/th and 47.90p/th. All seasonal power contracts saw gains this week, up on average by 4.1%, as winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 3.8% and 4.8% respectively, rising to £78.13/MWh and £58.00/MWh. Brent crude oil prices rose this week, up 3.1% to average $68.63/bl. At the week’s start, prices benefitted from expected increases in US and European fuel demand, despite spiralling COVID-19 cases in major consuming countries such as Brazil and India. This softened demand recovery concerns in the market. EU ETS carbon prices rose this week, rising 3.5% to average €49.15/t. Prices once again broke all-time record highs, clearing €50/t on 6 May.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 7th May 2021.
Written By Graham Paul
