Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 24th February 2024
This week saw a continued bearish pricing trend, with all tracked wholesale gas and power contracts in GB registering week-on-week price losses. Ongoing milder weather and increased wind power generation have kept near-term prices lower this week, while longer-dated contracts have taken price direction from wider movements in international commodity markets. Day-ahead gas fell 4.6% to 56.90p/th, following strong LNG arrivals to GB terminals, in tandem with increased Norwegian gas flows. Similarly, day-ahead power fell 6.5% to £57.50/MWh, finding support from greater wind generation projections reducing the requirement on more expensive forms of power generation. Following wider movements in international commodity markets, March 24 gas was down 8.1% at 55.60p/th, and April 24 gas also decreased 8.1% to 55.25p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 5.0% on average. Summer 24 and winter 24 gas dropped 8.9% and 5.8% respectively, to 56.50p/th and 71.60p/th. All seasonal power contracts also reported losses this week, down on average by 4.5%, as summer 24 power traded 6.5% lower at £54.00/MWh, while winter 24 fell 5.3% to £67.50/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 24th February 2024.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th February 2024
This week saw the continuation of a more bearish price movements, after what has represented a largely suppressed wholesale pricing environment in the opening two months of 2024. Falling near-term gas contract prices set a lot of the bearish sentiment for downward trending wholesale prices in the week, and in turn, prompted power to follow suit. Recognising these price drops, day-ahead gas fell 13.6% to 59.63p/th, amid the continuation of warmer weather promoting lower heating demand. Day-ahead power fell 8.2% to £61.50/MWh, mirroring trends shown from its equivalent gas contract, and with notable reductions at the end of the week amid lower domestic demand forecasts for Monday. Subsequently, March 24 gas was down 9.8% at 60.50p/th, and April 24 gas decreased 10.4% to 60.10p/th. Elsewhere, all seasonal gas contracts lowered this week, up by 5.8% on average, with both summer 24 and winter 24 gas decreasing 8.8% and 6.6% respectively, falling to 62.00p/th and 76.00p/th. Moreover, all seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 5.6%, with summer 24 and winter 24 retracting 6.5% and 6.3% respectively, falling to £57.75/MWh and £71.25/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot– Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th February 2024.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th February 2024
Most wholesale gas and power contracts experienced losses this week, opposing the trend seen in the week previous. Day-ahead gas fell 0.4% to 69.00p/th, as increased Norwegian flows provided a bearish pricing environment. Opposing its gas counterpart however, day-ahead power rose 25.2% to £67.00/MWh, with lower wind generation projections in the week ahead acting to increase reliance on gas-fired power generation. Returning to the bearish sentiment, both March 24 and April 24 gas contracts fell to 67.10p/th, dropping 5.1% and 5.9%, respectively. Similarly, all seasonal gas contracts dropped this week, down by 6.8% on average, with summer 24 and winter 24 gas dropping 6.2% and 8.3% respectively, falling to 68.00p/th and 81.40p/th. Like gas, all seasonal power contracts registered losses this week, down on average by 7.6%, as summer 24 power decreased 7.1% to £61.75/MWh, and winter 24 fell 8.5% to £76.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th February 2024.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 2nd February 2024
Most wholesale gas and power contracts experienced week-on-week gains this week. However, we continue to observe subdued wholesale energy prices compared to the year previous. Day-ahead gas rose 5.1% to 69.25p/th, despite above-average temperature forecasts in tandem with strong flows from the Norwegian Continental Shelf providing greater supply security to GB. Opposing this, day-ahead power fell 20.1% to £53.50/MWh, with losses driven further by forecasts of higher wind generation and lower demand, acting to decrease reliance on gas-fired assets. However, March 24 gas was up 7.0% at 70.70p/th, and April 24 gas increased 3.3% to 71.30p/th. Similarly, all seasonal gas contracts increased this week, up by 2.9% on average, with both summer 24 and winter 24 gas dropping 4.9% and 2.2% respectively, rising to 72.50p/th and 88.80p/th. Like gas, all seasonal power contracts registered gains this week, up on average by 3.1%, as summer 24 power grew 5.0% to £66.50/MWh, and winter 24 rose 2.6% to £83.10/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 2nd February 2024.
Written By Graham Paul
