Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 30th June 2023
This week, we observed mixed price movements. Largely, all gas contracts recorded gains whilst baseload power contracts saw a varied outturn. Firstly, day-ahead gas rose 5.4% to 84.93p/th, following extensive maintenance at Norwegian gas production facilities across the North Sea – acting to tighten gas supply. However, further gains were limited by elevated temperatures across the UK, stifling gas demand. Furthermore, strong European gas storage levels aids in offsetting the reduced Norwegian flows. Opposing the gain experienced across gas contracts, day-ahead power followed a prominent price decline, falling 21.3% to £63.00/MWh, following notable higher wind generation in tandem with reduced GB demand. The aforementioned bullish gas price drivers fed through to the month-ahead contracts, as July 23 gas rose 6.9% at 87.00p/th, and August 23 gas increased 7.6% to 87.40p/th. Similarly, all seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 1.5% on average, while both winter 23 and summer 24 gas increased 0.8% and 2.0% respectively, lifting to 131.00p/th and 126.50p/th. Experiencing a mixed trend across seasonal power contracts, an overall reduction was registered this week, with prices down on average by 0.5%, as winter 23 power decreased 2.5% to £128.25/MWh, while summer 24 expanded 0.4% to £113.50/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 30th June 2023.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th June 2023
All power and gas contracts reported gains this week. Day-ahead gas rose 27.8% to 88.00p/th, finding continued support from disruption to Norwegian flows as extensive maintenance continues. July 23 gas was up 31.5% at 88.00p/th, and August 23 gas increased 22.9% to 88.40p/th. Amid ongoing volatility, all seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 13.2% on average, while both winter 23 and summer 24 gas increased 17.6% and 17.5% respectively, lifting to 132.00p/th and 126.00p/th. Following its gas counterpart, day-ahead power rose 18.1% to sthis week, up on average by 11.7%, as winter 23 and summer 24 expanded 14.2% and 16.3% respectively, rising to £136.50/MWh and £116.00/MWh. Brent crude registered a 3.1% drop week-on-week to average $74.12/bl. This came following an unexpected rise in U.S. crude oil inventories. The UK ETS grew 7.8% to average £56.45/t and the EU ETS registered its highest value in two months of €94.15/t on 15 June.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 16th June 2023.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th June 2023
This week largely represented strong bullish sentiment for wholesale gas and power contracts in GB, with some exceptions from seasonal power prices. Weighed on by colder temperatures early in the week, prices saw mixed movements until gains consolidated later in the week. Day-ahead gas rose 20.8% to 68.85p/th, following continued outages of several large Norwegian gas fields, acting to tighten system conditions slightly. However, strong and consistent levels of supply via LNG from the US and Qatar continue to help mitigate any further price rises across shorter dated contracts. July 23 gas was up 19.5% at 66.90p/th, and August 23 gas increased 16.3% to 71.90p/th. Similarly, Q323 gas moved 15.9% higher to 72.10p/th. Subsequently, day-ahead power rose 30.7% to £83.00/MWh, following lower wind outturn and increased levels of demand expected early next week and into the weekend – and also mirroring gains set from the GB gas market. Elsewhere, July 23 power climbed 13.6% at £81.75/MWh, and August 23 power increased 9.9% to £81.40/MWh. Q323 power moved 13.0% higher to £84.75/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 9th June 2023.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 2nd June 2023
This week largely represented more bearish sentiment for wholesale gas and power contracts in GB, with some exceptions from peak power prices. Subsequently, day-ahead gas fell 1.0% to 57.00p/th, weighed by elevated temperatures in the first half of the week – although price losses were capped by reduced flows following extensive work at Norwegian gas fields and reduced temperatures in the latter half of the week. Day-ahead power dropped 2.3% to £63.50/MWh, following the downward movements from its equivalent gas contract, coupled with slightly elevated week-on-week wind generation. Similarly, July 23 gas was down 1.9% at 56.00p/th, and August 23 gas decreased 2.2% to 61.80p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 6.1% on average, with winter 23 and summer 24 gas dropping 6.2% and 6.5% to 106.00p/th and 103.75p/th, respectively. All seasonal power contracts dropped this week, down on average by 6.3%, as winter 23 power decreased 6.5% to £115.50/MWh, while summer 24 fell 4.4% to £97.50/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 2nd June 2023.
Written By Graham Paul
