Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 26th January 2024
It was a predominantly bearish week for gas and power contracts this week, continuing the trend of decreasing wholesale prices observed across much of 2023 and 2024 to date. Day-ahead gas fell 5.9% to 65.90p/th, following periods of above-average temperatures during the week and further limited by reduced maintenance works across the Norwegian Continental Shelf, bolstering flows into GB from Norway. Opposing this, day-ahead power rose 35.4% to £67.00/MWh, as lower wind generation projections for Monday act to increase demand for gas-fired generation. However, February 24 gas and March 24 gas were down 5.6% week-on-week to 67.30p/th and 66.10p/th respectively. Most seasonal gas contracts fell this week, down by 1.4% on average, with summer 24 and winter 24 gas falling 3.1% and 2.1%, to 69.10p/th and 86.90p/th respectively. All seasonal power contracts traded lower this week, down on average by 2.0%. summer 24 and winter 24 power went down 2.2% and 2.7% respectively, falling to £63.35/MWh and £81.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 26th January 2024.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 19th January 2024
Wholesale gas and power prices saw downward price movements throughout the week in GB, with strong European gas storage levels and stable Norwegian and UK Continental Shelf flows acting to soften margins, resulting in most power and gas contracts falling, with the one exception to this downward trend coming from the summer 25 contract for peak power. Day-ahead gas fell 12.5% to 70.00p/th, following continued strong LNG arrivals to GB terminals. Similarly, day-ahead power fell 38.1% to £49.50/MWh, following its gas counterpart in tandem with forecasts of high wind outturn next week upon the arrival of Storm Isha. February 24 gas was down 8.9% at 71.30p/th, and March 24 gas decreased 9.7% to 70.00p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 5.4% on average, with both summer 24 and winter 24 gas dropping 8.0% and 5.3% respectively, subsiding to 71.30p/th and 88.80p/th. All seasonal baseload power contracts declined this week too, down on average by 5.6%, as summer 24 power decreased 8.0% to £64.75/MWh, and winter 24 fell 5.4% to £83.25/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 19th January 2024.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 12th January 2024
We observed consistent bearish gas price movements across all tracked contracts this week, a likely consequence of the continued strong EU gas storage levels, at approximately 82% full at the time of writing. As a result, day-ahead gas fell 8.6% to 80.00p/th, despite below-average temperatures increasing domestic heating demand. Similarly, February 24 gas was down 8.6% at 78.30p/th, and March 24 gas decreased 8.6% to 77.50p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 4.1% on average, as both summer 24 and winter 24 gas dropped 7.4% and 4.8% respectively, subsiding to 77.50p/th and 93.75p/th. Experiencing a trend similar to its gas counterpart, day-ahead power fell 11.1% to £80.00/MWh, finding bearish direction from increased wind generation levels, reducing gas-for-power demand and easing system margins in tandem. Moreover, all seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 7.9%, as summer 24 power decreased 10.3% to £70.40/MWh, and winter 24 fell 6.9% to £88.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 12th January 2024.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 5th January 2024
This week saw a reversal of recent bearish price movements across most gas and power wholesale contracts. Subsequently, we saw the majority of gas and power contracts increase week-on-week. Day-ahead gas rose 9.4% to 87.50p/th, due to lowering temperatures seen during the week, boosting gas demand for heating. Current forecasts also point towards an upcoming cold weather spell in north-west Europe which could extend towards the UK in the coming week – likely to play a role in shaping the near-term wholesale pricing environment. Day-ahead power rose 36.4% to £90.00/MWh, following low wind outturn throughout the week, increasing gas for power demand, coupled with rising demand projections for Monday. February 24 gas was down 2.2% at 85.70p/th, and March 24 gas increased 4.9% to 84.80p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 0.1% on average, while summer 24 gas increased 1.9% to 83.70p/th, whereas winter 24 gas dropped 1.3% to 98.50p/th. Similarly, most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 1.5%. Summer 24 power was static at £78.50/MWh, while winter 24 fell 2.1% to £94.50/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 5th January 2024.
Written By Graham Paul
