Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 29th October 2021
All gas and power contracts moved lower this week. Gas contracts along the curve were pushed lower by expectations of increased Russian supply to Europe within the next week, after President Putin informed Gazprom to flow gas into Europe once it has filled its domestic stocks. Day-ahead gas dropped 19.5% to 165.00p/th, with further pressure from higher LNG send-out and an oversupplied system. December 21 gas fell 21.1% to 180.00p/th and summer 22 gas slipped 3.9% to 107.60p/th. Day-ahead power lost 27.6% to £131.00/MWh, weighed on by reduced gas prices and forecasts of stronger wind generation on Monday. December 21 power decreased 16.5% to £182.00/MWh and the summer 22 contract moved 4.1% lower to £107.25/MWh. Brent crude oil slipped just 0.04% to average $84.99/bl. Prices were pushed lower during the week amid an unexpected rise in US crude stocks and rising COVID-19 cases, although expectations that OPEC+ will not significantly raise its output helped claw back some losses on Friday. Meanwhile, UK ETS carbon traded 2.2% lower to average £55.72/t.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 29th October 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 22nd October 2021
This week, all power contracts reported losses, while price movements in gas contracts were more mixed. Day-ahead gas traded 9.3% lower at 205.00p/th amid lower gas-for-power demand and system oversupply towards the end of the week. All seasonal gas contracts went up this week, rising by an average of 3.9%. Following its gas counterpart, day-ahead power reduced 9.5% to £181.00/MWh, driven by higher wind output at the start of the week but offset marginally by forecasts of lower wind output towards the week’s end. All seasonal power contracts reported losses, down by 3.1% on average. Brent crude rose 1.3% to average $85.02/bl reaching a three-year high on Monday at $86.00/bl. UK ETS carbon lowered 12.2% to £56.95/t, weighed on by higher renewables output across Europe.
Wholesale price snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 22nd October 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 15th October 2021
The higher wholesale price benchmarks set across the last month continued again this week, albeit showed signs of softening from the recent spell of strong day-on-day price volatility. Day-ahead gas slipped 1.7% to 226.00p/th, following a more comfortable supply picture through both higher domestic and Norwegian supply volumes. Day-ahead power fell 6.1% to £200.00/MWh, with stronger wind generation seen broadly throughout the week, combined with softening demand in parallel. November 21 gas was down 3.4% at 247.62p/th, and December 21 gas decreased 3.3% to 255.66p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts increased this week, up by 5.9% on average. Summer 22 and winter 22 gas gained 10.6% and 9.8% respectively, lifting to 109.85p/th and 112.85p/th. Most seasonal power contracts rose this week, up on average by 0.1%, as summer 22 and winter 22 climbed 8.1% and 6.4% to £114.04/MWh and £117.00/MWh, respectively.
Wholesale Price Snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 15th October 2021.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 8th October 2021
It was a relatively mixed week for gas and power contracts this week, with the most pronounced losses seen on the far-curve, with near-term contracts continuing to hold onto unseaonsbly high price points. Day-ahead gas rose 2.2% to 230.00p/th, with the global gas supply outlook remaining notably tight. In Support, day-ahead prices reach their highest ever recorded levels, at 355.00p/th on 6 October . Day-ahead power fell 0.9% to £213/MWh, but remains well above seasonal norms, buoyed by strong gains made in gas contracts and lowering wind outturn entering the weekend and next week. November 21 gas was up 2.9% at 256.43p/th, and December 21 gas increased 3.7% to 264.42p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 5.7% on average, while both summer 22 and winter 22 gas dropped 14.4% and 13.1% respectively, subsiding to 99.33p/th and 102.81p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 3.1%, as summer 22 power decreased 12.1% to £105.50/MWh, while winter 22 fell 10.6% to £110.00/MWh.
Wholesale Price Snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 8th October 2021
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 1st October 2021
This week represented another bullish week for gas and power contracts, with significant gains most pronounced in shorter-term contracts. Day-ahead gas rose 35.5% to 225.00p/th, continuing to benefit from an on-going tighter global gas supply outlook. The day-ahead contract also reached a record high on 1 October at 225.00p/th. Day-ahead power trends mirrored the gas counterpart, subsequently rising 55.8% to £215/MWh, with the bullish price point set in short-term gas contracts supporting power prices. This was further exacerbated by lowering wind outturn as the week matured. November 21 gas was up 36.2% at 249.26p/th, and December 21 gas increased 37.2% to 255.10p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts lifted this week, up by 8.6% on average, while both summer 22 and winter 22 gas increased 25.9% and 24.0% respectively, lifting to 116.00p/th and 118.29p/th. The majority of seasonal power contracts also boosted this week, up on average by 16.2%, as summer 22 and winter 22 expanded 22.4% and 20.6% respectively, rising to £120.00/MWh and £123.00/MWh.
Wholesale Price Snapshot
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 1st October 2021.
Written By Graham Paul
