Energy Wholesale Market Review
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 27th January 2023
All wholesale gas and power contracts experienced week-on-week losses this week, as we continue to observe the continual decline of wholesale energy prices in the early part of 2023 to date. Day-ahead gas fell 12.4% to 138.00p/th, following warmer weather trends, particularly as the week progressed – coupled with higher levels of renewable generation, reducing demand from gas-fired assets. Day-ahead power fell 33.3% to £115.00/MWh, following the bearish movements of day-ahead gas prices, coupled with higher wind and renewable outturn seen across the week. Subsequently, February 23 gas was down 11.5% at 138.00p/th, and March 23 gas decreased 11.5% to 138.00p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 8.9% on average, while both summer 23 and winter 23 gas dropped 11.8% and 8.9% respectively, subsiding to 142.00p/th and 169.00p/th. Like gas, all seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 6.8%, as summer 23 power decreased 9.1% to £141.75/MWh, while winter 23 fell 6.8% to £172.50/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 27th January 2023.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 20th January 2023
The majority of wholesale gas and power contracts experienced week-on-week losses this week, with day-ahead baseload power being the notable outlier. We continue to see the downturn of wholesale energy prices, particularly in comparison to pre-Christmas levels. Furthermore, day-ahead gas fell 5.1% to 157.50p/th, following the continued receipt of higher levels of LNG deliveries to the UK, coupled with strong levels of EU gas in storage – easing concerns over future supply and demand balancing into the remainder of the winter season. On the contrary, day-ahead power rose 4.5% to £172.5/MWh, due to lower levels of wind outturn observed across the middle of the week. February 23 gas was down 4.3% at 156.00p/th, and March 23 gas decreased 4.9% to 156.00p/th. Elsewhere, all seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 2.9% on average. Summer 23 and winter 23 gas dropped 4.8% and 4.4% respectively, subsiding to 161.00p/th and 185.50p/th. Like gas, seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 4.3%, as summer 23 power decreased 3.1% to £156.00/MWh, while winter 23 fell 5.6% to £185.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 20th January 2023.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 13th January 2023
This week, we continued to broadly observe the downturn of wholesale gas and power prices, with outliers being day-ahead contracts. Recent milder weather has eased demand in the UK, allowing prices to soften. Added to this, the present gas storage picture on the continent remains strong. Withdrawals over the winter period have been less intensive, with thanks to the milder weather. European storage levels were c30% higher compared to last year as of 30 December, and 12% higher than the equivalent 5-year average. However, day-ahead gas rose 1.2% to 166.00p/th, with some short-lived periods of system undersupply. Day-ahead power rose 18.7% to £165.00/MWh, amid lowering wind outturn forecasts for early next week. February 23 gas was down 11.9% at 163.00p/th, and March 23 gas decreased 11.8% to 164.00p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 4.7% on average. Like gas, all seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 10.6%, as summer 23 power decreased 14.2% to £161.00/MWh, while winter 23 fell 12.5% to £196.00/MWh.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 13th January 2023.
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 6th January 2023
This week saw the continuation of lowering gas and power prices, moving down further from bearish price points set before the Christmas break. Despite a relative ‘pick-up’ in demand as we exit the festive period and industry resumes, prices remain in-line with recent levels. The continuation of milder temperatures has helped suppress demand, with this trend being reflected in lower wholesale prices. In support of this, day-ahead gas fell 7.9% to 164.00p/th, driven in part by the aforementioned warmer weather and strong LNG volumes continuing to reach the UK in the early part of 2023. Day-ahead power fell 13.1% to £139.00/MWh, following the bearish price movements of its equivalent gas contract, combined with the continuation of elevated and consistent levels of wind output. Similarly, February 23 gas was down 3.6% at 185.00p/th, and March 23 gas decreased 1.2% to 186.00p/th. All tracked seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 10.8% on average, while both summer 23 and winter 23 gas dropped 7.1% and 5.4% respectively. Like gas, all seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 6.6%.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Energy Wholesale Market Review Week Ending 6th January 2023.
Written By Graham Paul
